200 countries, 200 years in 4 minutes

I'm not into world economics, but this is an interesting video that follows world health and economics of 200 countries over the last 200 years.

It would be interesting to spend some time with Mr. Rosling to discuss some observations. For example, the video shows that the life expectancy in China rose steadily in the 1950s, then dropped quickly and dramatically from 1958 to 1960. Is this a discontinuity in data, or was something going on in China?

There's no momentum in sports

While watching some of the 2011 World Series coverage, I noticed commentators talking about teams' "momentum." I don't know what sports journalist first started using the word momentum. It's a technical sounding term — like torque or hemi — that people use frequently, but often don't know its meaning.
Let's look ahead to next year's World Series:

It's just before the start of game four, and the Miami Marlins have won the first three games of the contest. In front of the home-team dugout at brand new Marlins Ballpark, field reporter Ken Rosenthal asks manager Ozzie Guillen what his strategy is with momentum on his team's side.
"Guillen responds sharply, "To suggest that our strategy would be any different because we've won the last three games is ridiculous. Are you suggesting that we would even consider playing at less than 100%? That would go against every principle every player or manager has ever learned. You play every game one at a time, whether you won a blowout yesterday or were shut out." The camera quickly cuts to a commercial.
Returning to game coverage, Rosenthal is now at the visiting team's dugout. Turning his microphone to Indians Manager Manny Acta, Rosenthal asks, "Manny, no team has ever won a World Series after losing the first three games. With momentum clearly on your opponent's side, what is your strategy for tonight's game?"
Acta pauses impatiently, then seems to choose his words carefully. "First of all, Ken, the fact that no team has ever come back from a 3-0 deficit in the World Series is completely irrelevant. That streak will be broken eventually, so why not this year? Second, the fact that we've lost the last three games is also irrelevant. Every day brings a new game, a clean slate, and we play as hard as we can whether we've lost the last three games or won the last three. So if you want to ask me what our strategy is for this game, today, I'll be happy to put together a string of clichés for you. But don't tell me about momentum or what's happened in the last hundred years."

Granted, teams get hot, they go on streaks, and they may seem to get all the breaks, but they don't build momentum. Momentum follows the laws of physics. It increases steadily and when opposing forces act against it continuously or repeatedly, it gradually decreases. No exceptions. A sure thing. You can't say that about sports teams.

Would you rather be lucky or smart? Steve Jobs was both.

Even before Steve Jobs died, media reports repeatedly referred to his 2005 commencement speech at Stanford University. In his speech, Steve jobs reflected some of the events that led him to co-found Apple Computer — what he called connecting the dots.
He saw how sitting in on a calligraphy class led to one of the signature features of the MacIntosh — the use of multiple fonts. Windows had no choice but to copy this and other innovations of the MacIntosh.
Jobs also talked about getting fired from Apple. I had always thought that Apple suffered from Jobs' absence — and vice versa. I still think Apple suffered, but Jobs revealed that what he accomplished apart from Apple wouldn't have happened if he hadn't been been fired. And after reading his speech, I see that he took what he learned during his time away from Apple to accomplish much more than the MacIntosh — the iPod, iTunes, and iPhone.
So Jobs was lucky for many of the opportunities in his life. But even more so, he was smart for recognizing opportunities, acting on them, and bringing them together for his many successes.
He also challenged us to find what we love to do and make it our life's work. But he never said we'd become rich or famous doing so. I can attest to that. After 30 years, I am still passionate about my job, and I'm neither rich nor famous. But by connecting the dots, I can see how I got here — by making some good decisions, some bad ones, and plenty of luck.

A trip through the former East Germany

A few years ago I was invited to a press tour by Bosch Rexroth, headquartered in Germany. I spent nearly a week with editors from four other US publications in a VW minivan driving across Germany. We had been invited to visit the Hannover Fair and tour of several manufacturing plants scattered across Germany. Bosch Rexroth conducted the event to bring us up to date on the merger between Mannesmann Rexroth and Bosch Automation Technologies. Naturally, we toured some of their manufacturing plants, but we also visited other facilities of some of their customers.
The Volkswagen headquarters and manufacturing plant in Wolfsburg employs 50,000 people. And even though some last-minute security issues kept us from touring the actual manufacturing areas, we were, nonetheless, presented with some interesting facts and figures. We also spent some time in their visitor’s center, which is designed as a theme park.
We also visited Koenig & Bauer AG, a manufacturer of printing machines in Wurzburg. We all are aware of how far computers and telecommunications have advanced over the last ten years. But I was completely unaware of how much the performance of printing has improved in the same time frame. Most of this is attributed to the electric direct drives that now power these machines. These new machines use a continuous web of paper that shoots through the machine at an astounding 12 m/sec (27 mph) while maintaining a printing resolution of 0.050 mm.
But what really blew me away was what I learned at EMAG Mfg. GmbH, in Salach, in the former East Germany. Some of the manufacturing methods they used were completely new to me, but the big news was their boost in productivity. Manfred Hekeler, the marketing communications manager, proudly informed us that the average turnaround to produce a typical vertical machining center was about five weeks. Then he mentioned that this was a dramatic improvement in productivity over what it had been prior to the reunification of Germany. How dramatic? Previously, it took five years to put out a machine! And he said that was pretty good; citizens generally had to wait 12 years for a new car. Needless to say, once your new car arrived, you went out to order its replacement the very next day.
Mr. Hekeler explained that under the old system of working for the government, there was no competition, so there was little incentive to improve productivity or quality. But it wasn’t EMAG’s fault. Their suppliers worked for the government too, so it was not uncommon to wait months for parts that should've been available in a few days. Nonetheless, once EMAG entered the free market, company officials quickly realized that in order to survive, they would have to upgrade their operations to world-class standards — and fast. They did, and my hat goes off to them. Their success is as much a tribute to their resourcefulness as it is to the value of the free-enterprise system.

Did Steve Jobs change the world?

Appropriately enough, my wife and I first got the news that Steve Jobs had died as an alert on her iPhone. Initial news reports mentioned how Jobs’ contributions changed all of our lives. At first I didn’t buy into this, but after just a little thought I realized there’s no denying it.
Computers first entered my workplace in 1985. They were actually dedicated word processors, but they were a huge leap forward from typewriters. I still remember seeing Macs on clearance at the local Sears store in the early 90s. The early versions all had a monochrome monitor, and when the new ones came out with color, the older ones were clearance priced at $1000. This was way out of reach for a guy with a growing family — especially for what was still considered a novelty. But I knew computers would be important for my kids, so I ended up buying a Commodore 64 system. It wasn’t a Mac, but it served its purpose.
A few years later we got our first MacIntosh computers at Penton, and I was thrilled. I marveled at how easy it was to do things. Pop in a disk, and an icon of a disk appears on the desktop. Double-click it to see what’s inside. What could be simpler? We learned how to use the Mac operating system in one short class. Later, we would often discover little tricks to do things quicker or make files more organized.
On the other hand, people in the “business side” of the office had IBM-compatible PCs. Their machines used MS-DOS, and they had to enter commands on a keyboard. Working on a PC became a lot easier when Microsoft Windows entered the scene. PCs with the Windows operating system cost much less than Macs, so Windows-based machines dominated.
The two different systems polarized most users into Mac people or PC people. But even PC people have to acknowledge the contributions of Steve Jobs. If it wasn’t for Apple’s easy-to-use operating system, Windows would be light years behind what it is now. Who knows, we might still have to type in commands from the keyboard. As big and powerful as Microsoft is, it has been forced to continually change Windows to try to keep up with Apple’s innovations. Unfortunately, changes aren't always improvements, so people sometimes choose not to upgrade their older Windows operating systems because of problems and incompatibility issues with the new ones.
But Jobs’ contributions only started with the Mac. The iPod has changed the way people manage their music collection. You may not have an iPod or use iTunes, but you probably listen to music on an MP3 player — even if it’s your phone. That leads to still another innovation from Jobs — the iPhone. Before the iPhone, smart phones needed you to use a stylus to select tiny icons from a tiny display. Today, of course, the touch of your finger lets you scroll though and select from dozens of icons for music, e-mail, video, and different apps of your own choosing.
Some people have even compared Jobs’ genius to that of Edison. I wouldn’t go that far, because Edison was an inventor, and Jobs was a visionary. But either way, they both changed the world.

Gone green to save money

One of my favorite early field assignments as an editor was touring a sugar factory in southern Florida. I was already in Tampa for my main project, so as long as I was in the area, I rented a car and drove down to Coral Gables, outside of Miami.
I met my host for lunch, had some Cuban coffee and fried bananas -- quite an experience. Then I followed my host to the sugar factory.
Stalks of raw sugar cane were delivered from the field and loaded onto a conveyor that transported the sweet stuff into the factory. The cane then went through a series of rollers that squeezed the juice out of the stalks. The juice collected in vats below and eventually found its way into a heater that turned the juice into syrup and, eventually, brown sugar.
The brown sugar was not food grade and was loaded onto trucks for transport to a factory for further processing into white table sugar. Oddly, brown sugar was made by adding molasses into the white sugar. Now I think companies divert some of the raw sugar into a process that makes it table ready.
Anyway, what I found most interesting about the sugar factory was its power management. After the juice is squeezed from the stalks of cane, residual juice still remains in them. This juice is a high energy fuel, so it is burned to produce electricity to run the plant. In fact, so much power is generated that the plant sells power back to the electric company.
So, ultimately, this plant may have had a negative carbon footprint (a term I certainly had never heard at the time) based on the surplus energy it produced. On the other hand, the emissions spewing from the smokestacks showed that the power generation was not the plant operators' attempt to go green, but to earn some greenbacks.

My take on the economy, technology, and the media

Back in 2009, Eric Knappenberger, from Smiley Hanchulak, conducted an interview with me for his client's e-newsletter, "Pumped Up," for Parker Hannifin's Hydraulic Pump Div. I had forgotten about this until I stumbled across it recently. Here's a link for those who are interested.

The interview took place in early 2009, but I still stand behind what's here. Unfortunately, though, I think I'm a bit more pessimistic about the long-term future of our economy in general.

I should add that since this interview was published, we have also added a LinkedIn group and FaceBook page.

Here's the text in case you don't want to follow the link:

Meet The Media:
Alan Hitchcox, editor,
Hydraulics & Pneumatics magazine

Pumped Up

For more than 60 years, Hydraulics & Pneumatics magazine has been a leading information source for designers and users of fluid power and motion control systems. PUMPED UP sat down with editor Alan Hitchcox to learn what a new year, new President and new media environment means to the hydraulics industry.

If President Obama follows through on his pledge for job creation and repair of the U.S. infrastructure, what impact will it have on the hydraulics industry?
ALAN: That’s a big “if.” Public construction projects have been carrying much of the hydraulics industry through a tough economy. Construction and repair of our infrastructure depends heavily on hydraulic equipment, and every hydraulic system needs at least one pump. However, I don’t see President Obama and Congress introducing spending programs massive enough to have a substantial impact on the hydraulics market in the near future.

How is the heavy equipment market shaping-up? What challenges will foreign competitors pose?
I think the weak global economy has tightened the money supply and made companies more cautious about capital expenditures, which could reduce the amount of heavy equipment being purchased. Plus, I think many companies have already purchased new equipment to head-off having to buy more expensive, higher-tier emissions equipment that meets stricter regulations. I look at the worldview as a threat and opportunity. Yes, offshore companies will continue to introduce more sophisticated machines and components that will threaten domestic manufacturers. However, I also believe that some of these countries — especially India — will become consumers. This could enable domestic manufacturers to set-up shop overseas to serve that demand.

Can companies like Parker locate and train the talent they need as conditions improve and the purchase of new equipment increases?
Yes, I think a large number of young people with bright minds will continue to be drawn to engineering, design and fields essential to the industry. I think we’ll continue to see an increasing number of these students coming in from overseas countries.

What innovation do you anticipate from the hydraulics arena in 2009?
I think we’ll continue to see more widespread application of hydraulic fan drives to make diesel powered equipment more fuel efficient. A weak economy and lower fuel prices may delay their introduction, but I think the value of hydraulic hybrid drives makes them inevitable for our future. As they become commonplace, continuing R&D will make them even more effective.

How will the pursuit of alternative energy solutions impact the hydraulics industry in the short and long-term? What risks/rewards do you anticipate for hydraulic system component manufacturers?
Hydraulics is widely used in many alternative energy systems. I think it’s an area for growth, but I don’t see it becoming revolutionary. I could see steady growth in the U.S., but I’m not sure it will offset some of the areas where hydraulics has been displaced by other technologies. I think it would be risky to invest too heavily in this or any single technology.

The demise of print media has been foretold for more than a decade. Will newspapers and magazines ever cease to be? How have your own readers’ habits changed in recent years and how have you adapted?
I’m a firm believer we should never say never. . . so yes, I do think that print media eventually will disappear, but not in our lifetime. Hydraulics & Pneumatics began embracing online content in 1996 when we launched our Web site. Five years ago we began offering readers the option of receiving their monthly issue in an online format. Less than 10% of our subscribers have crossed over, but I expect the percentage to steadily rise over time.
There’s no question that the online version makes it far easier to search for an article published years ago. However, most subscribers still value the portability and convenience of a printed magazine. It’s much faster to read a printed magazine than it is to view the same material digitally. And because we’re all so busy, I think the majority of people will continue to receive their regular dose of fluid power technology from the printed version of H&P.

Hydraulics & Pneumatics now hosts an online forum. Can social media in fact benefit the fluid power community in coming years?
Absolutely. However, I think many people tend to give too much credibility to information they learn on the Web and in blogs. This opens the opportunity for a plethora of misinformation. As people begin to realize the value of high-quality information, I think they will tend to rely more heavily on a few trusted sources rather than results from a search, unknown Web site or forum. This is the unwritten mission statement of our Web site: to be not only the most complete source of fluid power information, but to be the most accurate and reliable.
What I really like about forums is how they bring people together who might not otherwise have the opportunity to share ideas. For example, our forum is populated with mechanics looking for sources of components and advice on how to work on equipment. We also have electronics people hoping to learn more about hydraulics as well as experts who not only provide valuable advice, but also learn from others. For example, hydraulic systems for mobile equipment feature many design characteristics that differ from those used in automated industrial equipment. By sharing their techniques, forum participants are learning new techniques and expanding their knowledge to help make their jobs easier.