Tuesday, November 29, 2011

200 countries, 200 years in 4 minutes


I'm not into world economics, but this is an interesting video that follows world health and economics of 200 countries over the last 200 years.

It would be interesting to spend some time with Mr. Rosling to discuss some observations. For example, the video shows that the life expectancy in China rose steadily in the 1950s, then dropped quickly and dramatically from 1958 to 1960. Is this a discontinuity in data, or was something going on in China?

Wednesday, November 9, 2011

There's no momentum in sports


While watching some of the 2011 World Series coverage, I noticed commentators talking about teams' "momentum." I don't know what sports journalist first started using the word momentum. It's a technical sounding term — like torque or hemi — that people use frequently, but often don't know its meaning.
Let's look ahead to next year's World Series:

It's just before the start of game four, and the Miami Marlins have won the first three games of the contest. In front of the home-team dugout at brand new Marlins Ballpark, field reporter Ken Rosenthal asks manager Ozzie Guillen what his strategy is with momentum on his team's side.
"Guillen responds sharply, "To suggest that our strategy would be any different because we've won the last three games is ridiculous. Are you suggesting that we would even consider playing at less than 100%? That would go against every principle every player or manager has ever learned. You play every game one at a time, whether you won a blowout yesterday or were shut out." The camera quickly cuts to a commercial.

Returning to game coverage, Rosenthal is now at the visiting team's dugout. Turning his microphone to Indians Manager Manny Acta, Rosenthal asks, "Manny, no team has ever won a World Series after losing the first three games. With momentum clearly on your opponent's side, what is your strategy for tonight's game?"

Acta pauses impatiently, then seems to choose his words carefully. "First of all, Ken, the fact that no team has ever come back from a 3-0 deficit in the World Series is completely irrelevant. That streak will be broken eventually, so why not this year? Second, the fact that we've lost the last three games is also irrelevant. Every day brings a new game, a clean slate, and we play as hard as we can whether we've lost the last three games or won the last three. So if you want to ask me what our strategy is for this game, today, I'll be happy to put together a string of clichés for you. But don't tell me about momentum or what's happened in the last hundred years."


Granted, teams get hot, they go on streaks, and they may seem to get all the breaks, but they don't build momentum. Momentum follows the laws of physics. It increases steadily and when opposing forces act against it continuously or repeatedly, it gradually decreases. No exceptions. A sure thing. You can't say that about sports teams.